uncertainty and ambiguity • 03.27.09
You can always tell when the media considers the crisis to be less of a crisis when you start seeing stories about Madagascar 2: Escape to Africa return to the mainstream. That’s today, apparently, though I’m sure for the good people of Madagascar, it’s still very much a calamity. 
I haven’t posted in a few days. Truthfully, I haven’t had the energy to dissect everything that was coming at me. I was getting emails, forwards, texts, news from the internet, and even with this spate of diverse viewpoints and “facts”, I still feel like I’m not hearing the whole story. So I buried my head in my schoolwork, reading about globalization and the WTO (an organization I simply can’t believe the world allows to exist any longer), social entrepreneurship and innovation (Madagascar still on my mind, obviously), and participatory monitoring and evaluation. Even though I wasn’t posting, and was in fact avoiding reading most of the news beyond the headlines and summaries (most were repeating the same things over and over), I couldn’t get Madagascar out of my head. So I guess it’s time to buckle down and do some figuring out. Sorry for my absence. I kind of felt like I was banging my head against a wall in trying to figure out the truth.
Yesterday, a Malagasy author appeared in the New York Times Op-Ed section. Johary Ravaloson, Island of Instability:
Instead, I felt a sense of defeat, a hangover I didn’t understand. The next day, on my way to work, I didn’t see much joy in the streets. Despite the change in government, uncertainty persists.
And the fihavanana, you ask? How can we maintain the ancient ties when all the ancient values — respect for our elders, the spirit of moderation, the inclination for dialogue — have disappeared?
…
After Mr. Ravalomanana stepped down, a friend sent an e-mail message warning me to beware of crocodile feasts. Translated: now the victors will divide the spoils.
Yesterday, various sources reported that the police were firing on demonstrators. Concerned, I immediately started reading the articles — they weren’t firing on the demonstrators, they were firing in the air over the demonstrators; no one was injured, according to The Associated Press. Not that that’s any less frightening, but it’s a little less bad, I suppose. Andry really didn’t get a honeymoon period after his swearing-in. Seems like the protests started up right away. Ravalomanana is in Swaziland, doing who knows what, meeting with other African leaders including the King of Swaziland, and formulating his plan for his grand power grab-back. That should keep them in the news awhile longer.
A national conference that Rajoelina says will include all key groups — including Ravalomanana’s party — was to be convened next week to discuss the new constitution and electoral systems. Speakers at Thursday’s protest said Ravalomanana would only participate if he was recognized at the conference as the nation’s elected president and if it were organized by the Southern African Development Community or other another neutral, international body.
The April 2-3 conference has been organized by an independent body appointed by Rajoelina.
Ravalomanana, who is in Swaziland ahead of a regional summit on Madagascar, has vowed he will make a political comeback on the Indian Ocean island nation.
Leaders at the African regional gathering were expected to adopt sanctions or other measures to pressure Rajoelina to step down. The Southern African Development Community has accused him of making an unconstitutional power grab.
Last words on today, here are a couple of sources for the forest-pillaging issue:
National Geographic News: Lemur Forests Pillaged by “Gangs” as Madagascar Reels
New York Times: Madagascar’s Turmoil Spills Into Forests
And this caught my eye: “Loyalists Plan Madagascar Tax Boycott” – Financial Times. That’s getting creative. I’m not sure how much of Madagascar’s government revenue actually comes from taxes, but I can’t imagine it’s very much if 90% of the population is living on less than $2 per day. In fact, I’m pretty sure that a lot of the government revenue comes from those nasty structural adjustment loans from the IMF and World Bank. Here’s an excerpt from a very interesting country brief, which you can download HERE, done by the Financial Standards Foundation:
Foreign Aid and External Debt
Madagascar is very dependent upon foreign assistance as a source of government revenue and to finance its economic development. According to the UNDP, official development assistance totaled $929.2 million in 2005 and was equivalent to 18.4 percent of GDP. The IMF estimated that foreign grants accounted for 31.6 percent of government revenue in 2007.
On October 21, 2004, the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) and the IMF announced that Madagascar had “taken the necessary steps to reach the completion point under the Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative.” The threshold for HIPC eligibility is an external debt that is more than 150 percent of the exports of goods and services or in some cases more than 250 percent of fiscal revenue. Madagascar was the 15th country to reach the completion point under the Initiative. The IMF and IDA estimated the debt relief granted to Madagascar was $836.6 million in net present value terms, which over time will translate into a reduction in debt servicing costs of $1.9 billion. The external public debt was about $1.9 billion at the end of 2007.
In theory, a bold move, evading taxes. But considering the above, I don’t think it’s going to make much of a difference.
