After three days of chats, no deal (VOA News). They’ll get back together in 2 weeks to continue talking. If they failed to agree this time (and all the other times they’ve talked to each other, anywhere), is there any reason to believe that they’ll agree in 15 days? What will change between now and then?
I’d love to be able to write all about the talks going on between Rajoelina, Ravalomanana, Ratsiraka, and Zafy right now, but I haven’t had any news about them yet. All I know is that R8 was quoted as being optimistic.
I have a question. I’ve been getting blips and blurps about aid workers being kidnapped in various countries lately – Sudan and Kenya, most notably for July. Why aren’t we hearing more about them? I talked to someone recently who hadn’t heard about the two reporters sentenced to years in a labor camp in North Korea for allegedly committing hostilities and crossing the border, and who were taken home by Bill Clinton yesterday. How do these things not make news and a man having sex with a horse (twice) in South Carolina does? We are captivated by this, and the world’s ugliest creatures:
Photo credit: National Geographic
I’m frustrated with news. It is nice to know that Bill has our back in a pinch, though, isn’t it?
From Reuters yesterday, reports of Ravalomanana’s impending return, and Rajoelina’s accusation that he’ll go to any length to get power back. Do counter-coups work? Also, again with the mercenaries? That line is so played out. I seriously doubt that Ravalomanana would do something that stupid. I also hope he wouldn’t, because I’m on the cusp of buying some very expensive plane tickets.
Side note, I heard rumors that Rajoelina was angry enough to carry out his coup plans because he was trying to date Ravalomanana’s daughter, and R8 wasn’t having it. At this point, I’d believe it.
Ravalomanana, who fled to southern Africa, insists he remains the legitimate leader of the
from World Culture Pictorial
Indian Ocean island and has rejected sharing power with Rajoelina.
“Today there are people who are thirsty for power,” Rajoelina told French RFI radio in an interview recorded on Friday. RFI released written excerpts of the interview, which is due to be broadcast Thursday.
“There are people who are even ready to come and retake power with mercenaries. Everyone is talking about it. And that is what Mr Ravalomanana is doing,” Rajoelina said.
OFFICIAL PRESS RELEASE
PRESIDENCY OF THE REPUBLIC OF MADAGASCAR
Pretoria, 4th June 2009The illegal regime, that seized power following a coup d’état, ended rule
of law, public policy and judicial independence in Madagascar.The charges brought against me, and unfounded convictions, constitute
proof that justice is not independent and that there is no rule of law in
Madagascar today.The statement made by the so-called Minister of Justice of the HAT is
invalid as it is the product of an insurrectional, illegal government, and
contrary to the Constitution of Madagascar. Only when rule of law is
restored will justice return to Madagascar.The current illegal regime in Madagascar is a disgrace to the nation.
Unfounded and unfair accusations and criticism directed against me, and
against people who respect the law, have become a common practice of
deceit of the insurrectional regime.Unlawful arrests and arbitrary detentions that are politically-motivated
have also become common practice. Prime Minister Manandafy Rakotonirina,
parliamentarians, journalists, and other deputies have been the victims of
these arbitrary measures. Violence and intimidation from this illegal
regime are also inflicted upon the Malagasy people every day.We cannot accept this illegality. I appeal to all Malagasy compatriots,
who value freedom and legality, especially jurists. Let us unite together.
We must bring an end to this injustice. We must reverse this
unconstitutional and illegal regime led by Andry Rajoelina.May God bless our beloved homeland!
His Excellency, Marc Ravalomanana
President of the Republic of Madagascar
Apparently it’s important to sentence Marc Ravalomanana to 4 years in jail, for abuse of office, but mostly for buying his expensive jet. BBC covers this plot twist. Radio VOP out of Zimbabwe has a bit more detail:
“Ravalomanana mixed public interests with his personal interests,” Justice Minister Christine Razanamahasoa told reporters, announcing the Malagasy court’s decision.
…
Wednesday’s verdict echoed the trial in absentia of Ravalomanana’s predecessor, Didier Ratsiraka, who remains an influential playmaker in Malagasy politics from exile in France. (Reuters)
So, this is confusing to me. I agree that Ravalomanana abused his power a little, and definitely bought that expensive jet, but didn’t Andry just HIJACK A PLANE TO GO TO DAKAR? Since he already assumed power by illegal means, does that mean he can break all of the other laws too? I have no idea where this is going.
A couple of months ago, I received an anonymous tip from a friend that France was behind Rajoelina’s rise to power. The source was unknown, so I filed it away in my mind tank for later. These days, rumors are still swirling, and a couple of days ago Ravalomanana formally accused France of the same thing – supporting the coup and even backing it financially. Now, I don’t really think it would be in anyone’s best interests for France to “re-colonize” Madagascar; that seems to be an inflammatory statement designed to get people’s goats. However, the economic interests that France might have in Madagascar were threatened by Ravalomanana’s preference to deal with China or the US. Here’s one explanation on Afrik.com:
Economic interests
An anonymous article published on the 27th of March 2009 in Top Mada, an online Malagasy newspaper, said to be pro-Ravalomanana, argued that economic relations between the former head of state and Paris could be behind Marc Ravolomanana’s fall. Some of these economic interests include the Bemolonga oil field, which is coveted by Total, the paper indicates. According the article, the former president was not a keen supporter of the French group, but instead China Petroleum Corporation, one of the largest oil companies in the world. A tactical error that, reportedly, cost him his title.
“After his rise to power,” writes Top Mada, “French companies that enjoyed monopoly, such as as Colas, found themselves competing with companies from the United States, Canada, South Africa and Asia. The share of French investment fell as a result”. Francis Soler’s analysis, however, begs to differ. He underlines the positive impact of Marc Ravalomanana’s policies on French investments. “He proposed a diversification of economic relations… Colas, a major French construction company, benefited from those policies” he says. “Although its market share has reduced, it has, nonetheless, increased its business activities. The construction market has grown (and) the French have benefited from it. The former president is not anti-French, he is only very nationalistic,” the journalist remarked. As the owner of “Tiko” and “Magro”, nationalism also served Marc Ravalomanana’s interests in the Madagascan food industry.
Ravalomanana is vowing that he will return home, to Madagascar. Maybe we’ll get there around the same time. What if we sit next to each other on the plane? That would make an interesting story. Here it is, from Al Jazeera English:
Madagascar leader ‘will go home’
In other news, Andry Rajoelina announced 2 days ago that he wouldn’t run in the coming elections, providing that the other former heads of state stood down as well. AFP reports,
“I am not thirsty for power, I do not want to cling to power. I just want to bring democracy to Madagascar,” Rajoelina said Wednesday.
“I was forced to leave the presidency seat at gunpoint, but I am going back to Madagascar in peace. I am confident of SADC and the security they will give; I am confident things will be fine,” Ravalomanana told the media.(From IRIN News today)
Ravalomanana also appointed a new prime minister (from China View News):
Ravalomanana told his supporters through telephone from Swaziland that he had appointed Rakotonirina Manandafy, leader of the Movement for the Progress of Madagascar (MFM), to be his new prime minister, the private Antsiva Radio reported Thursday evening.
MFM, founded by Manandafy in 1972, has been a political ally of the former ruling I Love Madagascar party led by Ravalomanana and one of few political parties which supported Ravalomanana in the current political crisis that began last December.
Here’s some bad, bad news. Rajoelina is not proving to be the leader some may have thought, or hoped he might be, and he’s apparently bent on screwing over the younger generations of Malagasy people, who are in school, and who will feel the brunt of his reversal of proposed education reforms. I can’t figure out if he’s a complete idiot, or on some French person’s payroll… somebody enlighten me. Here’s an excerpt from the article in afrol News:
More than 60 percent of the Malagasy government budget was funded by donors during the regime of toppled President Marc Ravalomana, who was able to attract many new foreign partners to invest in Madagascar’s development. But as long as an illegitimate government holds power on the island, all foreign development funds are frozen.
…
However, among the first official steps of President Rajoelina was to reverse the education reform and announce a more rigid use of French as teaching language in Malagasy schools. According to officials from the Norwegian development aid agency, Mr Rajoelina has “set other and poorer standards” for Madagascar’s education system.
It is speculated that the introduction of strict adherence to French language in all teaching in Malagasy schools may be a step by Mr Rajoelina to win the Paris government over to his side. All other foreign partners – which grew in number and importance during President Ravalomanana – however see this as a major setback.
French was the main teaching language during the colonial period, but also during the first decade of independence. In 1972, however, government changed the teaching language to Malagasy, which is the only language spoken by all inhabitant on the large island. But the problem was that a chronic lack of good teaching materials in Malagasy, leading to the reintroduction of French as the main teaching language again twenty years later.
Currently, Malagasy pupils – out of which 98 percent do not speak proper French – are struggling with French language textbooks adapted to the cultural context of mainland France. Teachers mostly lecture in Malagasy language as most have very poor French language skills, but exams remain in French.
The upcoming education reform was to secure a greater part of education in Malagasy; the only language understood by all of Madagascar’s children. But President Rajoelina rejected the reform and has instead given the order that all teaching – including lecturing – shall be in French language.
When will Madagascar be truly independent? It feels like Malagasy culture, language, history, and sense of identity are being crushed under the weight of France.
I’ve been out of commission for a few days, doing some exciting things, some boring things, and a lot of driving. On Tuesday, Tori Hogan of Beyond Good Intentions premiered her film series at Middlesex Lounge in Cambridge, Massachusetts. She showed three short videos, just to give us a taste of what’s to come, and they were so well-made and powerful, I was completely inspired. Tori launched BGI in order to answer the question ‘What works in international aid?’ She challenged herself, and is now challenging the world, to go beyond good intentions and find real solutions to global problems.
I found the BGI website a few months ago, and was instantly drawn to the organization, especially since Tori’s is a question I’ve been asking, myself, for years. I’ll be following up on some of the stories Tori collected from Madagascar when I return to the Red Island in September. Here is their website, please check it out and join the discussion!
In Madagascar news, the UN has asked for $35.7 million for humanitarian aid, a Cyclone Jade has killed 9, affected 40,000,and wiped out the east coast yet again (though CARE International was putting together a disaster relief plan last year, I recall…). This cyclone couldn’t have come at a worse time:
The National Office for the Management of Risks and Catastrophes said the heavy rains left in itswake threaten serious flooding, which would further damage homes and contaminate drinking water with salt water.
Sondra left Madagascar last week, and is now in Senegal, contemplating her trip to Guinea. I just got this interesting news item this morning on Reliefweb, though, which doesn’t bode well for her journey:
ADDIS ABABA, April 10, 2009 (AFP) -The Inter-Parliamentary Union on Friday suspended Madagascar and Guinea after coups in the two African nations, its secretary general Anders Johnsson announced Friday. “IPU has suspended this morning the membership of Madagascar and Guinea because they have no parliament anymore. Because there have been coups in these countries, they have decided to suspend their parliament, and we cannot accept that,” Johnsson told a press briefing.
Ravalomanana still pledges to return to power in Madagascar, from various locations throughout mainland Africa, the latest of which is Addis Ababa. He’s meeting with officials of the AU as well as Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, and is planning on going ahead to meet with Khadafi early next week. I have absolutely no idea what shape this is going to take. Especially since I’ve heard reports that Tiko, R8′s company, has been closed down and 3,500 people have been let go. You can read more about the closing, and Tiko’s history, at TGoose’s blog, which is one of many blogs about the political crisis. I’m going to start having to write about other things 
You can always tell when the media considers the crisis to be less of a crisis when you start seeing stories about Madagascar 2: Escape to Africa return to the mainstream. That’s today, apparently, though I’m sure for the good people of Madagascar, it’s still very much a calamity. 
I haven’t posted in a few days. Truthfully, I haven’t had the energy to dissect everything that was coming at me. I was getting emails, forwards, texts, news from the internet, and even with this spate of diverse viewpoints and “facts”, I still feel like I’m not hearing the whole story. So I buried my head in my schoolwork, reading about globalization and the WTO (an organization I simply can’t believe the world allows to exist any longer), social entrepreneurship and innovation (Madagascar still on my mind, obviously), and participatory monitoring and evaluation. Even though I wasn’t posting, and was in fact avoiding reading most of the news beyond the headlines and summaries (most were repeating the same things over and over), I couldn’t get Madagascar out of my head. So I guess it’s time to buckle down and do some figuring out. Sorry for my absence. I kind of felt like I was banging my head against a wall in trying to figure out the truth.
Yesterday, a Malagasy author appeared in the New York Times Op-Ed section. Johary Ravaloson, Island of Instability:
Instead, I felt a sense of defeat, a hangover I didn’t understand. The next day, on my way to work, I didn’t see much joy in the streets. Despite the change in government, uncertainty persists.
And the fihavanana, you ask? How can we maintain the ancient ties when all the ancient values — respect for our elders, the spirit of moderation, the inclination for dialogue — have disappeared?
…
After Mr. Ravalomanana stepped down, a friend sent an e-mail message warning me to beware of crocodile feasts. Translated: now the victors will divide the spoils.
Yesterday, various sources reported that the police were firing on demonstrators. Concerned, I immediately started reading the articles — they weren’t firing on the demonstrators, they were firing in the air over the demonstrators; no one was injured, according to The Associated Press. Not that that’s any less frightening, but it’s a little less bad, I suppose. Andry really didn’t get a honeymoon period after his swearing-in. Seems like the protests started up right away. Ravalomanana is in Swaziland, doing who knows what, meeting with other African leaders including the King of Swaziland, and formulating his plan for his grand power grab-back. That should keep them in the news awhile longer.
A national conference that Rajoelina says will include all key groups — including Ravalomanana’s party — was to be convened next week to discuss the new constitution and electoral systems. Speakers at Thursday’s protest said Ravalomanana would only participate if he was recognized at the conference as the nation’s elected president and if it were organized by the Southern African Development Community or other another neutral, international body.
The April 2-3 conference has been organized by an independent body appointed by Rajoelina.
Ravalomanana, who is in Swaziland ahead of a regional summit on Madagascar, has vowed he will make a political comeback on the Indian Ocean island nation.
Leaders at the African regional gathering were expected to adopt sanctions or other measures to pressure Rajoelina to step down. The Southern African Development Community has accused him of making an unconstitutional power grab.
Last words on today, here are a couple of sources for the forest-pillaging issue:
National Geographic News: Lemur Forests Pillaged by “Gangs” as Madagascar Reels
New York Times: Madagascar’s Turmoil Spills Into Forests
And this caught my eye: “Loyalists Plan Madagascar Tax Boycott” – Financial Times. That’s getting creative. I’m not sure how much of Madagascar’s government revenue actually comes from taxes, but I can’t imagine it’s very much if 90% of the population is living on less than $2 per day. In fact, I’m pretty sure that a lot of the government revenue comes from those nasty structural adjustment loans from the IMF and World Bank. Here’s an excerpt from a very interesting country brief, which you can download HERE, done by the Financial Standards Foundation:
Foreign Aid and External Debt
Madagascar is very dependent upon foreign assistance as a source of government revenue and to finance its economic development. According to the UNDP, official development assistance totaled $929.2 million in 2005 and was equivalent to 18.4 percent of GDP. The IMF estimated that foreign grants accounted for 31.6 percent of government revenue in 2007.
On October 21, 2004, the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) and the IMF announced that Madagascar had “taken the necessary steps to reach the completion point under the Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative.” The threshold for HIPC eligibility is an external debt that is more than 150 percent of the exports of goods and services or in some cases more than 250 percent of fiscal revenue. Madagascar was the 15th country to reach the completion point under the Initiative. The IMF and IDA estimated the debt relief granted to Madagascar was $836.6 million in net present value terms, which over time will translate into a reduction in debt servicing costs of $1.9 billion. The external public debt was about $1.9 billion at the end of 2007.
In theory, a bold move, evading taxes. But considering the above, I don’t think it’s going to make much of a difference.
